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World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision - 26 February, 2003 by the United Nations Population Division with Tables and Data.

This report lowered the 2050 projection from 9.1 billion to 8.7 billion. Half the decrease due to rapidly declining fertility rates and the other half due to increased mortality (mostly AIDS).

"For the first time, the United Nations Population Division projects that future fertility levels in most developing countries will likely fall below 2.1 children per woman, the level needed to ensure the long-term replacement of the population, at some point in the twenty-first century. By 2050, the medium variant of the 2002 Revision projects that three out of every four countries in the less developed regions will be experiencing below-replacement fertility." - UN Press Release
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